ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015 Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops. Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of the cyclone's surface center. Subsequently, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Guidance still indicates that the depression could become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of the IVCN and FSSE forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt. The depression is forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days. As the tropical cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a generally north-northwestward direction or meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:49 UTC