ZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM HST TUE SEP 08 2015 THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH JIMENA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A BLOB OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AN EARLIER ASCAT-B PASS SURPRISINGLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT. ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX SINCE THEN LEADS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING TO RATHER HIGH VALUES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY CAUSING A DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND INTO A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AS WELL...WHICH COULD TEMPER THE WEAKENING RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWING SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE VALUES ARE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR. VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING ABOUT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST WHILE THE STORM MOVES AROUND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. JIMENA...OR ITS REMNANTS... SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ACCELERATE IN A FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHOULD THEN ABSORB THE LOW BY DAY 5. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 26.0N 153.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 25.7N 155.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.3N 156.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.1N 158.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 25.1N 159.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 25.5N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 28.0N 163.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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