ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015 800 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 Convection associated with the depression is becoming sheared out to the northwest of the low-level center, the latter of which is becoming increasingly difficult to locate since the circulation is elongated northwest to southeast. The intensity will remain at 30 kt, based on continuity with the previous advisory and a Dvorak CI value of T2.0 from TAFB. The initial motion estimate of 305/14 is based on continuity with the previous forecast track and recent SSMI/S and AMSU overpasses. The depression is expected to remain embedded within a deep southeasterly steering flow, which should cause the cyclone to continue on a northwestward to west-northwestward course until dissipation by 96 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered through 36 hours, and the official forecast track lies close to the consensus models TVCE and GFEX. The depression is now over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures with colder water ahead of the cyclone. The combination of colder ocean conditions, drier mid-level air, and increasing southeasterly vertical wind shear should result in the system's rapid demise during the next 12 hours or so. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low pressure system by 12 hours, and dissipate by 96 hours when the system will be over 22 deg C to 23 deg C SSTs. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 21.8N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 23.2N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 24.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 26.1N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 27.1N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 29.0N 131.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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