ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015 The tropical depression is not very well organized. Satellite images indicate that the circulation is elongated from north-northwest to south-southeast with multiple centers along the trough axis. The associated deep convection has been shrinking, and only a small patch remains on the west side of the circulation. The initial intensity estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The depression is headed toward cooler water and an environment of drier air and stronger shear. These unfavorable conditions should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday and likely dissipate in about four days, or possibly sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and follows the trend in the guidance. The depression is situated between a mid- to upper-level low to its southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States. These features are expected to continue to steer the depression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward away from land until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one, mainly to account for a more southerly initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 19.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 23.3N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 24.9N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 26.0N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 27.7N 132.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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