ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015 Felicia consists of a swirl of low clouds with little or no deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago suggested that the system may have weakened a bit, but the pass did not capture all of the circulation. Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Weakening is likely as the system traverses waters cooler than 25 deg C and continues to ingest stable air. The official forecast now shows remnant low status in 12 hours, and Felicia could degenerate even sooner than that. The motion continues toward the northwest or 310/10 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the last few advisory packages. Felicia or its remnants should be steered by the flow to the southwest of a mid-level high pressure area through tonight. Thereafter, the system should turn westward and move within the low-level easterly flow. The official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 22.8N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 23.4N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 23.9N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:40 UTC