ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015 Felicia remains a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a cluster of convection over the southeastern quadrant. An ASCAT-B overpass at 0523 UTC showed an area of 25-30 kt winds in the northeastern semicircle, and this is the basis for keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. The depression is entraining a dry and stable airmass and will be passing over decreasing sea surface temperatures. Thus, continued weakening is predicted. The official forecast shows Felicia becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, with the remnant low expected to dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The initial motion is 310/10. The cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then westward during the next 48 hours on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The track guidance has shifted a little to the north since the previous advisory, and based on this forecast track is also shifted northward. The new track lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 21.2N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 22.0N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 22.7N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 23.1N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 23.2N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 23.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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