ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015 800 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015 Satellite images indicate that Felicia is weakening. The low-level center of the system is exposed and the associated deep convection is confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. This makes Felicia a tropical depression. Since the depression is already in a dry and stable airmass and will soon be over cool water, continued weakening is predicted. The official forecast shows Felicia becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could occur even sooner. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Felicia is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The depression is expected to turn to the west-northwest on Friday and to the west on Saturday steered by the low-level flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and in best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.4N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 22.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 22.6N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 22.8N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 23.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:40 UTC