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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Dolores appears to be gradually losing strength, but it is still a
major hurricane.  Although the eye of the hurricane remains quite
distinct, satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall
have warmed some during the past several hours.  The latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT support lowering
the initial intensity to 100 kt. Dolores is expected to remain over
warm water and in relatively favorable atmospheric conditions for
about another 24 hours.  Therefore, little change in strength is
forecast during that time.  Afterwards Dolores is expected to move
over cooler water and into an environment of stronger shear and
drier air.  These unfavorable conditions should cause a steady
weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely just an update of
the previous one and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance.

The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling around quite a bit.
Smoothing through the oscillations yields an initial motion estimate
of 300/05 kt.  The subtropical ridge that is currently providing the
steering for Dolores is expected to build westward during the next
couple of days.  This pattern change should cause the cyclone to
turn more toward the west with an increase in forward speed during
the next 48 hours. Dolores is expected to reach the western
periphery of the ridge in a few days, and that should cause the
cyclone to turn northwestward well to the west of the Baja
California peninsula. The latest guidance has generally shifted a
little to the northeast, and the official track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. This forecast is in good agreement with
a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 19.1N 110.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 19.6N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 20.1N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 20.5N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 20.9N 116.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 23.0N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 26.2N 122.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 29.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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