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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
900 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Dolores has intensified, with an eye becoming more apparent while
embedded within a very cold-topped central dense overcast (CDO), and
the only break in the CDO is over the northeastern quadrant.  Dvorak
classifications from both TAFB and SAB yield an intensity of 90 kt,
and this will be the advisory intensity.  The upper-level outflow is
becoming better defined and the dynamical model guidance indicates
that the vertical shear will be fairly weak for the next several
days. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely until
sea surface temperatures begin to cool in 48 to 72 hours.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS model and
now shows the system becoming a major hurricane sooner than in the
earlier NHC forecasts.  This is consistent with the recently
observed strengthening trend, however.

The initial motion, based on reliable center fixes, remains 295/6
kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy.  The
hurricane should continue to be steered by the flow on the western
side of a mid-tropospheric ridge, and continue to move on a
west-northwestward to northwestward heading.  The official forecast
is to the left of the dynamical model consensus, which favors the
GFS and ECMWF solutions over the U.K. Met. Office and GFDL tracks
since the later two models appear to be unrealistically far to the
east.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 18.2N 109.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 19.2N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 20.5N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 27.0N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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