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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

The satellite appearance of Carlos continues to rapidly deteriorate
as the surface circulation separates further from the remaining
less organized and shrinking deep convection.  Moderate northerly
shear and mid to upper-level dry, stable, air penetrating the cloud
pattern from western Mexico has more than likely been the
contributing factor in the sudden weakening trend.  Small, compact,
tropical cyclones such as Carlos are notorious for spinning down as
quickly as they can rapidly intensify.  The initial intensity is
lowered to 55 kt for this advisory and this could be generous given
that the Dvorak technique has been known to be imprecise with small
tropical cyclones.  The NHC forecast calls for rapid weakening
through the period as the cyclone interacts with the mountainous
terrain of western Mexico before moving back over water around the
24 hour period.  The current forecast philosophy is that
Carlos' circulation will have been severely disrupted by the time of
its expected to move offshore and into the southern Gulf of
California.  Thus, regeneration is unlikely and dissipation should
occur in 48 hours or less.

The initial motion is estimated to be around 330/6 kt.  The primary
steering mechanism through the forecast period is the
south-southeasterly low-level flow produced by high pressure to the
east-northeast of the cyclone and a trough of low pressure extending
southward from the Gulf of California.  The official forecast,
which is nudged to the right of the previous forecast, is based
primarily on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble, the GFS,
and the shallow layer Beta and Advection Model (BAMS).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 19.0N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 19.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 20.6N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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