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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015

Andres continues to weaken. The mid-level center of the cyclone
appears to have decoupled from the low-level circulation about 12
hours ago, and only a small area of deep convection remains nearly
two degrees removed from the center.  The initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates
and on the assumption of some decrease in the winds since an
overnight ASCAT pass.  Strong west-southwesterly shear and very
unfavorable thermodynamic factors should result in a continued spin
down of the cyclone, and global models show the circulation of
Andres degenerating into an open trough between 48 and 72 hours.
The NHC official forecast shows remnant low status in 12 hours and
dissipation a day earlier than the previous forecast.

Andres is drifting toward the east, and the initial motion estimate
is 095/03. Now that Andres has become fully decoupled and therefore
a shallow cyclone, it should be steered by the low-level flow which
is partially controlled by a low-level ridge to its northwest.
However, Andres should feel the tug by the large circulation of
Hurricane Blanca well to the east.  The resultant flow should
produce a general southeastward motion until dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 20.1N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 20.0N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1200Z 19.7N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 19.1N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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