ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Andres continues to spin down this afternoon, and a timely 1553 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass revealed a partial eyewall with the remaining portion located over the northern quadrant. The initial intensity is set at 75 kt which agrees with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The rate of weakening is expected to increase as Andres moves over even cooler waters during the next couple of days. An inhibiting thermodynamic environment and anticipated southwesterly shear near the 48-hour period should also contribute to the prompt demise of the cyclone. Andres is expected to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or so with dissipation in 4 days or less. The NHC official forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS model and the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus. The initial motion estimated to be at 305/9 kt. A break in the mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to develop during the next couple of days which should induce a turn toward the northwest and north. After the 36 hour period, Andres is expected to turn northeastward, then east-northeastward on Thursday while moving slowly within the weak low- to mid-level flow as a shallow, sheared system. For the remaining forecast period, Andres is expected to ultimately drift toward the east-southeast within the peripheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated several hundred miles to its east. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and sides with the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.3N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.1N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.8N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.9N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 19.9N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 19.2N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:29 UTC