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HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

The cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was earlier today,
but the eye continues to be distinct. Both objective and subjective
T-numbers are decreasing slightly, and on this basis, the initial
intensity has been set at 130 kt. Another plane will investigate
Joaquin in a few hours.  Despite the observed intensification this
morning, the NHC forecast still calls for gradual weakening due to
increasing shear and cooler waters. Joaquin is forecast to become a
strong extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period.

Earlier reconnaissance data and current satellite fixes indicate
that Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 15
kt.  The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow between an
eastward-moving trough over southeastern United States and a
weakening subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Joaquin is
forecast to turn more to the north-northeast as the trough swings
eastward. Then, in about 3 days, the hurricane will be fully
embedded in the mid-latitude flow and will turn to the northeast
with an increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is very similar
to the previous one, primarily during the first 24 to 36 hours, and
is on top of the multi-model consensus and the consensus of the
ECMWF and the GFS models.

Although the confidence in the track forecast is quite high due to
the good model agreement, a small deviation to the east of the
forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger
winds to Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 27.0N  70.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 29.0N  68.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 31.5N  67.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 33.7N  66.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 45.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/1800Z 50.0N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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