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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

Fred continues to linger as a tropical depression.  Visible
satellite images indicate that the center of Fred remains well
defined, but the outer circulation has become elongated likely due
to the interaction with a frontal system to its northwest.  Deep
convection is disorganized, and consists of two patches to the
north and south of the center.  The initial wind speed estimate
remains 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB
and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  Fred is
currently battling about 20 kt of north-northwesterly shear and is
in an environment of fairly dry mid-level air.  The shear is
expected to lessen some during the next day or so before it
increases again from the west in 48-72 hours, at which time the
cyclone will begin to move over slightly lower SSTs.  Therefore, a
little strengthening is possible during the next day or two before
the environment becomes more hostile.  The NHC intensity forecast
lies on the low side of the guidance, and is similar to the previous
one.

The depression is moving northward, or 005 degrees, at about 8 kt.
A deep-layer trough to the northwest of the system should cause
Fred to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed during
the next day or two.  After that time, the trough is expected to
flatten, and that should allow Fred to turn eastward and then
southeastward by the end of the forecast period.  The new NHC track
forecast is a little faster than the previous one, trending toward
the latest consensus aids.

It should be noted that an alternate scenario, provided by the
ECMWF model, is that circulation of Fred could open up into a trough
when it interacts with the nearby frontal system during the next day
or two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 25.7N  43.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 27.0N  42.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 28.8N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 30.2N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 31.4N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 32.8N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 32.9N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 31.5N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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