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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
800 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA IS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
  Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
estimated near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion
should continue for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today,
move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the
north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning,
and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Leeward Islands this morning.  Tropical storm conditions could reach
portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and
the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late
Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turk and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas
through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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