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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed
for these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 75.1 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track the center of Erika will move near
over portions of eastern Cuba later today and move across central
Cuba tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Erika is expected to weaken to a tropical depression today as it
moves over land. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate
into a trough of low pressure today while it moves over the high
terrain of eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating Erika later this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through
Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected
to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and
Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas
through Sunday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions across Haiti will gradually
subside this morning, and will continue in portions of the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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