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BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT DANNY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and
Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the U. S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
Danny.  Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions
of these areas tonight or Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.3 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the
west is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through
Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Danny is expected to
be near the Leeward Islands by Sunday night or Monday morning.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to be at tropical
storm strength when it reaches the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The latest minimum central pressure extrapolated from NOAA aircraft
data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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