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Tropical Depression VANCE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014

Vance is currently making landfall along the coast of Mexico to the
southeast of Mazatlan as a tropical depression with maximum winds
estimated to be 25 kt.  The cyclone barely meets the qualifications
for a tropical cyclone since the low-level center is becoming
elongated.  Vance is producing a small area of deep convection to
the north of the center over western Mexico, and the larger swath of
moisture seen in satellite images to its southeast is not directly
associated with this system.

The weakening cyclone continues to turn to the right, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 055/11.  Although a 12-hour
forecast position is shown, it would not be surprising if Vance
dissipates over western Mexico before then.

Even though the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate soon,
moisture from the remnants of Vance and the area to its southeast
should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the
south-central United States.  This is producing heavy rains over
portions of these areas, which should continue for another day or
two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 22.7N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 23.0N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Cangialosi

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