ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 After struggling to organize during the past couple of days, Vance is finally in the midst of a definitive strengthening trend, and close to becoming a hurricane. The low-level center is embedded beneath very cold cloud tops, and the convective canopy has been expanding due to good upper-level outflow to the north and west of the cyclone. The initial intensity is estimated to be 60 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and T3.7/59 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Vance is likely going through a period of rapid intensification. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for additional quick strengthening, and there is a 2 out of 3 chance of a 30-kt increase in Vance's maximum winds during the next 24 hours based on the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance. The new NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the previous forecast during the first 48 hours, and it is slightly higher than the most aggressive intensity models in light of the SHIPS RI numbers. After 48 hours, Vance is likely to weaken rapidly due to 30-40 kt of southwesterly shear and a drier mid-level environment. The NHC forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one on days 3-5 and closely follows the SHIPS guidance and the trends noted in the GFS and ECMWF global models. Vance is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, or 295/12 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico, and toward a deep-layer trough located between 110W and 130W. Vance is expected to turn northwestward and northward between these two features during the next 2 days. Thereafter, the strong shear is forecast to leave Vance's low-level circulation in a weaker steering environment south of the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance has shifted westward, especially after 48 hours, and the NHC track forecast lies on the eastern edge of the envelope near the GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 10.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.5N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 18.9N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:10:03 UTC