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Tropical Storm TRUDY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better
organized with very deep convection near the center and significant
bands in the southern semicircle.  Microwave satellite data and
radar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence
of some inner-core features forming.  Dvorak intensity estimates are
increasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best
agreement with the Data-T number from TAFB.  Although the
environment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone
doesn't have much time before it makes landfall.  Thus, the official
forecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt,
which lies on the higher side of the consensus.

Best estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt.
Deep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward
until landfall within 24 hours.  Guidance has trended a little
slower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend.
Although there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near
the coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by
the very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours.

The primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy
rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially
near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 16.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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