ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014 CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY ... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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