ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.8N 99.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 98.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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