ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 Polo is intensifying, given the improvement of the cloud pattern during the past several hours. In fact, there was a hint of an eye feature embedded within a circular area of deep convection around 1800 UTC, but this feature has not been observed since then. Based on the average of the T-numbers from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. There is an opportunity for Polo to strengthen before the strong upper-level northeasterlies become established over the cyclone in 48 hours as indicated by most of the global models. The NHC forecast is near the upper boundary of the intensity guidance. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 knots. Most of the global models indicate that the mid-level ridge over Mexico will build westward, and this pattern will gradually steer Polo toward the west-northwest. On the forecast track, the core of the cyclone will stay south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. This official forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows both the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 19.2N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:55 UTC