ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since that time, the thunderstorm activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity numbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty warm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about 48 hours. This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus ICON. Polo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10 kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of Polo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general northwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF model forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing the center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC forecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average track between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn to the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the north rebuilds. The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 12.8N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:55 UTC