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Tropical Storm NORBERT (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014

Norbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the
past several hours.  Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in
the circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a
post-tropical cyclone soon.  Based on a slow spin down of the
maximum winds analyzed from the ASCAT overpass from earlier today,
the current intensity is set at 40 kt.   Since the system has a
substantial circulation, it should take a couple of days to
dissipate.  The official wind speed forecast is similar to the
previous one, and anticipates that the system will be very weak by
the time it nears the north-central Baja California peninsula.

The cyclone's heading is gradually turning to the right, and the
initial motion is now 320/6.  A mid-level trough near California
should cause Norbert, or the remnant low, to turn toward the north
and northeast during the next couple of days.  By 48-72 hours, the
weak cyclone will likely move slowly east-northeastward within the
low-level flow.  The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and essentially splits the difference between the
latest GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks.

Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue
to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern
United States.  This could result in heavy rains and life-
threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 27.1N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 27.7N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1200Z 29.0N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0000Z 29.2N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0000Z 29.5N 115.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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