ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 Deep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of the previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given that the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection does not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical tonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible satellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a circulation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial intensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant low is expected to persist through the 5-day period. The initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward motion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of southern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for the initial position and motion. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 26.1N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 29.8N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 30.6N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 30.9N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 30.6N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 30.0N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:46 UTC