ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Convection associated with Lowell continues to decrease as the circulation moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the surviving convection now in a band over the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low with the remaining convection dissipating in about 36 hours. However, since the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are 22-24 deg C, this could occur anytime between now and then. The initial motion is 305/7. Lowell should continue moving generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest while it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The track guidance between 48-120 hours has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory. The new forecast track is also nudged to the left, but lies a little to the right of the model consensus and the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 22.9N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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