ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 The convective ring surrounding the large ragged eye of Lowell has closed off over the past few hours, and the eye has warmed a little. The initial intensity is set to 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, making Lowell the seventh hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season. Little change in intensity is expected in the next 12 hours, but Lowell should begin to slowly weaken after that time as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable airmass. Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell becoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and weakening to a remnant low afterward. The initial motion estimate remains 315/03. As a mid/upper-level trough over southern California weakens and moves eastward, a ridge will rebuild to the north and east of Lowell. This should result in a faster northwestward motion for the next 3 days, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest as the cyclone becomes a shallower system steered by the low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one, and is very close to the latest TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.0N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:44 UTC