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Tropical Depression KARINA (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing
Karina, as only a small puff of deep convection remains in the
southwestern quadrant of the cyclone.  Dvorak current intensity
numbers continue to drop, and a blend of the values from the ADT,
SAB, and TAFB indicate that Karina has weakened to a 30-kt tropical
depression.  Despite the system heading toward warmer waters,
hostile vertical shear should cause Karina to become a remnant low
in about 12 hours.  Thereafter, Karina's remnant low should become
absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about
two days.  The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the
HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models and is the same as that from the
previous advisory.

With Karina's very limited deep convection, finding the center this
morning is quite easy in the shortwave infrared imagery.  Karina
is moving toward the east-southeast at 8 kt.  The cyclone will be
advected around the large circulation of Marie until absorption of
Karina occurs.  The track forecast - based upon a blend of the TVCE
multi-model consensus and the previous advisory - is just south
of the previous official prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 17.1N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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