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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the west
of the center of the depression during the last several hours.  The
banding features, however, have become a little less defined
recently.  ASCAT passes at 0420 and 0506 UTC showed maximum winds of
about 30 kt, and Dvorak intensity estimates also support an
intensity of that value.  Therefore, the initial wind speed estimate
remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central
United States.  This ridge is expected to build over the Pacific
Ocean, which should steer the tropical cyclone westward away from
Mexico during the next several days.  The model guidance has shifted
a little to the north and is faster this cycle, and the official
track forecast has been adjusted to account for these changes.  The
ECMWF is now in better agreement with the remainder of the guidance
as the latest run shows less interaction with a developing
disturbance to the east of the cyclone.

Moderate northeasterly shear is currently affecting the system,
which is likely the reason why the convection is currently displaced
to the west of the center.  The shear is expected to lessen during
the next day or so, and the environmental winds are anticipated to
remain conducive for development through the remainder of the
forecast period.  In addition, warm water and a relatively moist
air mass should also support strengthening.  The SHIPS and LGEM
models respond to the favorable environment and show a steady
strengthening trend.  Conversely, the HWRF and GFDL models predict
little or no strengthening of the system.  Given the aforementioned
environmental conditions, the official intensity forecast remains
higher than the consensus in favor of the SHIPS and LGEM solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 17.0N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 17.4N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 17.5N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 17.7N 118.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 18.2N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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