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Tropical Depression ELIDA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Elida remains a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of any deep
convection.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt,
close to a blend of the latest T/CI numbers from TAFB.  Strong
northwesterly shear over Elida should continue to weaken the
system.  Model guidance is in good agreement on this solution,
and the new NHC intensity prediction is very close to the previous
one.  The only significant change is to show remnant low status
within 24 hours.  Given the lack of convection, however,
Elida could become a remnant low even sooner than forecast.

Elida is moving a little faster toward the southeast this evening -
roughly 135/3 - an unusual motion for an eastern Pacific cyclone
in July.   The depression or its remnants will likely move
southward by late tomorrow, then westward by Thursday due to a
building low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific.  Model guidance
has shifted southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is moved
in that direction.  The small cyclone should degenerate into a
trough in 3-4 days, which is in line with the global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 17.0N 103.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.7N 103.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 16.4N 103.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1200Z 16.2N 103.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0000Z 16.1N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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