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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the Douglas' cloud
pattern has not changed much this morning, except for some cooling
of cloud top temperatures northwest of the center.  A blend of
Dvorak intensity estimates and an ADT CI value of 2.2 are used to
lower the initial wind speed estimate to 35 kt on this advisory.
Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low during
the next few days, Douglas will be traversing gradually decreasing
sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more
stable air.  These factors should result in a gradual weakening of
the cyclone, and remnant low status is indicated by day 3.  The NHC
intensity forecast is reduced slightly relative to the previous one
and is near the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 310/06.  The subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone is weakening, which should result in a further
reduction of forward speed on a west-northwesterly heading during
the next couple of days.  Once Douglas becomes a shallower vortex in
2-3 days, a bend of the track toward the west is expected, followed
by some increase in forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, nudged slightly to the
north in the direction of the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 19.1N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 19.4N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.7N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 19.9N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 21.0N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 21.5N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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