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Tropical Storm CRISTINA (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Cristina's convective organization is degrading quickly, with the
low-level center located near the southwestern edge of an
elongating convective band.  A blend of the Final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT support downgrading Cristina to a 60-kt
tropical storm on this advisory.  Vertical shear will continue to
increase during the next day or two, and Cristina will also be
moving over sub-26C water in about 12-24 hours.  Therefore, steady
weakening is forecast to continue, and the cyclone will likely
become a remnant low in 36-48 hours and dissipate by day 5.  The NHC
intensity forecast favors a fairly quick weakening rate and is
closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HWRF model.

Cristina has slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is 310/5 kt.
Now that vertical shear is decoupling the system, the cyclone is
likely to turn toward the west-northwest later today and maintain
that heading through 48 hours.  After that time, a break in the
subtropical ridge should allow the remnant low to turn toward the
north-northwest before it dissipates.  This northward trend has
been observed in several model cycles, and the NHC track forecast
has again been shifted northward on days 3 and 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 19.4N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 20.2N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 12:09:33 UTC