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Hurricane CRISTINA (Text)

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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

Cristina appears to be in the latter stages of an eyewall
replacement.  A small part of the original eyewall is surrounded by
an elongated spiral band, and the eye, as seen in microwave images,
has expanded to 25-30 n mi wide.  The satellite intensity estimates
are still suggesting an overall downward trend, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 85 kt based on a blend of the Final-T and
Current Intensity numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT.

Cristina is approaching a tight sea surface temperature gradient,
and the cyclone probably has another 36 hours or so before it moves
over water colder than 26C.  In addition, upper-level winds are
likely to become more hostile in about 24 hours with the approach
of a sharp upper-level trough from the west.  Therefore, it
is unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall
replacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the
entire forecast period.  The new NHC forecast is mainly an update of
the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus during the
first 24 hours and then a bit lower between 36-72 hours.

A mid-level ridge located over northwestern Mexico continues to
steer Cristina northwestward at about 7 kt.  This motion should
continue for another 24 hours while the cyclone remains a hurricane
or strong tropical storm.  The weakening system is then expected to
turn west-northwestward by 36 hours.  The track guidance once again
shifted a little to the north on this advisory cycle, and the new
NHC track forecast is also moved in that direction for much of the
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 18.0N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 20.1N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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