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Hurricane CRISTINA (Text)


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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

Cristina continues to gain strength.  The eye has become more
distinct in recent satellite images, and cloud tops surrounding
the center have cooled.  In addition, the overall cloud pattern
appears more symmetric than earlier this afternoon with better
organized banding features.  Dvorak classifications were 4.5/77 kt
from both TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC.  Since that time, the eye has
become surrounded by white cloud tops on the Dvorak IR curve, which
suggests that Cristina's winds have increased to at least 85 kt.

The hurricane still has another day or so to gain additional
strength, since the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low
while Cristina lies over warm 29 C waters.  In 2 to 3 days, the
environment is expected to become less favorable as the cyclone
begins to move over cooler water and into westerly shear.  These
hostile conditions should cause weakening, and Cristina is expected
to become a remnant low in about 5 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term
to account for the observed strengthening trend, but is otherwise
unchanged.

The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling, but a smooth initial
motion estimate is 290/5.  A slightly faster west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while
Cristina moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system.  By the end of the forecast period, the weakening
storm is expected to turn back toward the west steered by the
low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of
the previous one trending toward the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 16.0N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 16.4N 106.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 17.1N 108.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 17.9N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 19.6N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 20.2N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Oct-2014 12:09:28 UTC