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Tropical Depression THREE-E (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure to the
southwest of Mexico has become much better organized during the
past 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-A
overpasses, respectively, indicated that the system had
uncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant.
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropical
depression of the eastern North Pacific season.  The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite
estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, based
primarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data.  The
cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja California
and into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are in
excellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion
throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track is
similar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE.

Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly
in visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images
indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet
juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level
circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry
slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in
visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a
result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for
the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water
and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less
than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air
are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON.

Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the
Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or
warnings along the coast of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 12:09:33 UTC