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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014

The low pressure area located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
has acquired enough organized deep convection to be classified as a
tropical depression.  The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which
is based Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a ship
observation within the eastern portion of the circulation.
Environmental conditions, consisting of low vertical wind shear and
warm sea surface temperatures, favor intensification during the next
few days.  The primary limiting factors are likely to be the
large and sprawling structure of the cyclone and interaction
with land later in the forecast period.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 330 degrees at 3
kt. The depression is forecast to move slowly northwestward to
northward between a mid to upper-level ridge over the
west-central Caribbean Sea and a mid- to upper-level trough
extending southwestward across the western Gulf of Mexico.  While
most of the global models agree on a general northwestward to
northward motion during the next several days, there are large
differences in the forward speed of the cyclone, and how soon
the center nears the coast in the model predictions. The GFS shows a
faster motion and brings the cyclone to the coast within 2 to 3
days.  On the other hand, the ECMWF keeps the depression offshore
for more than 5 days.  The NHC forecast generally lies between these
scenarios and shows a slow motion toward the coast of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.  Due to the high amount of uncertainty on the
timing of the approach to southern Mexico, a tropical storm watch
has been issued for a portion of the coast of southeastern  Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.1N  94.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.5N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 14.0N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 14.5N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 15.0N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 15.3N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 15.6N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 16.0N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Oct-2014 12:09:26 UTC