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Tropical Depression ONE-E (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

Convective banding is currently increasing near the center of
Tropical Depression One-E over the northern semicircle.  There have
been multiple recent scatterometer overpasses, with recent ASCAT-A
data showing an area of 25-30 kt winds about 60-75 n mi from the
center over the northeastern quadrant.  Based on this, the initial
intensity is increased to 30 kt.  The cirrus outflow is good in
all directions.  However, analyses from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin suggest some light southerly shear continues to affect the
system.

The scatterometer fixes have helped pin down the center location,
and the initial motion is estimated at 295/4.  The depression is
south of a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer
trough over the western United States.  While the large-scale models
forecast this trough to move eastward, the subtropical ridge is
likely to remain weak with the tropical cyclone remaining in an
area of light steering currents for most of the forecast period.
While the guidance shows a large spread, there is general agreement
that the depression should move slowly west-northwestward for the
next 2-3 days, followed by a turn to the north as a mid/upper-level
trough develops near 120W and a mid/upper-level ridge develops east
of the cyclone.  The new forecast track is near the previous track
through 72 hour and is nudged a little to the east of the previous
track after that time.  The track lies north of the model consensus
through 72 hours and west of the consensus at 96 and 120 hours.

The depression is currently expected to be in an area of light/
moderate southerly vertical wind shear during the forecast period.
This should allow at least gradual strengthening, and the new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and the
intensity consensus.  There are two potential, and contradictory,
issues with the intensity forecast.  The first is that the
large-scale models forecast moderate to strong upper-level winds
near the cyclone during the forecast period, especially after 72
hours.  If these winds get closer to the system than currently
forecast, they could inhibit development.  The second is that the
SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a significantly above-
normal chance of rapid intensification, and the GFDL model forecasts
the depression to reach hurricane strength in about 72 hours.  If
the stronger upper-level wind do not impact the cyclone, it could
strengthen more than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 10.8N 108.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 11.1N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 11.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 11.5N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 11.6N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 12.0N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 12.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 13.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Oct-2014 12:09:24 UTC