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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO BEARING DOWN ON BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN A
FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 65.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. GONZALO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE
OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H. GONZALO IS A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA. FASTER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO MOVES OVER COOL
WATERS.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
GONZALO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING VERY SOON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

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FORECASTER AVILA

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