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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery,
but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the
center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt
based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the
latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast
during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters.
The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours
and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is
forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone
dissipates in about 4 days.

The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in
southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a
deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo
should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours
and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of
the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the
track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 34.7N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 38.2N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 44.2N  54.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 49.7N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0600Z 53.0N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0600Z 56.0N   3.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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