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Tropical Storm BERTHA (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...DISORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 63.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT...PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY...MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GUADELOUPE
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DOMINICA
AND GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WIND
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:08 UTC