ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013 RAYMOND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND A 1018 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED SIGNS OF AN INNER CORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE WEAKENING...BUT RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND AN UPWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF SHIPS AND LGEM AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/06. AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OR EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT... STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RAYMOND...WHICH SHOULD IMPART A STEADIER WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF RAYMOND...ESPECIALLY HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRENDS IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THAT TIME. WHILE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF RAYMOND OFFSHORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 14.9N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 15.9N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 16.4N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC