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Tropical Storm MANUEL (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013               
1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       3      12      19      31      34      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  6      14      25      26      36      31      NA
TROPICAL STORM  84      64      50      48      32      34      NA
HURRICANE       10      19      14       7       2       2      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       10      18      12       7       1       2      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       1       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    60KT    50KT    40KT    25KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  5   7(12)   3(15)   3(18)   3(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  8   9(17)   4(21)   3(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  5  12(17)   6(23)   5(28)   5(33)   1(34)   X(34)
LA PAZ         50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LORETO         34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   6(14)   4(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  2   8(10)   7(17)   7(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  7  23(30)  12(42)   6(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
LOS MOCHIS     64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34 27  30(57)   6(63)   1(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CULIACAN       50  2  18(20)   6(26)   1(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CULIACAN       64  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAZATLAN       34 11   5(16)   2(18)   2(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC