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Tropical Depression MANUEL (Text)


ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013
 
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN SUMMARY SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 107.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 107.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 107.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:31 UTC