ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013 ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF LORENA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES. BARRING A SERIOUS COMEBACK IN THE CONVECTION...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR AND COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 3 KT AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS LIKELY AS THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION GETS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTANT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A SURFACE TROUGH IN A DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 23.9N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 24.1N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 24.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:30 UTC