ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NOT BEEN AS HELPFUL AS IT USUALLY IS IN LOCATING THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST OBSCURING THE CIRCULATION FEATURES. ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS A BIT ELONGATED...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS RELOCATED NORTHWARD... CLOSER TO A CENTER INDICATED ON MICROWAVE PASSES. STILL...THE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED A FAIR DISTANCE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS...SOME STRENGTHENING SEEMS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT 36H OR SO. LAND INTERACTION AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENA TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STAYING ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE PLUME...GIVING SOME WEIGHT TO THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GENERALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING. RECENTLY LORENA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...PERHAPS DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TEMPORARILY WEAKENING THE RIDGE. A LONG-TERM MOTION IS 325/10...NOTABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM LORENA...ALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND A BIT FASTER AND NORTHWARD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT WAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.3N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 21.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 22.5N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.5N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:30 UTC