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Post-Tropical Cyclone IVO (Text)

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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013
 
IVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  
THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.  AS A
RESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND
IVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT
AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE 
FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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