ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. GIL CONSISTS OF AN IRREGULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVOID OF BANDING FEATURES WITH LIMITED OUTFLOW. SINCE THE SATELLITE INTENISTY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOSTILE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL BEGIN TO APPROACH COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR. THE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLIER...BUT WITH THE HELP OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...WE HAVE DETERMINED THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE VERTICALLY DISPLACED...BUT STILL EMBEDDED OR VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GIL IS BEING STEERED BY A WELL-ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW...AND SINCE THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.6N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.7N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.7N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC