ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME. BLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS. BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO. ALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC