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Tropical Storm JERRY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE 
AND ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN...WITH RECENT SATELLITE DATA ONLY
SHOWING A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING 
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS WHILE JERRY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.  AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND
DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD SUCCUMB TO THE
SHEAR AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. 

AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT
JERRY HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. 
AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN 
ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF JERRY IN A FEW
DAYS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 28.1N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 28.6N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 29.5N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 30.6N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 31.8N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 34.0N  34.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 37.0N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 41.0N  23.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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